The democratic alliance in the Asia-Pacific region will be key to balancing a rising China’s ambitions.
By Eshika Arora (PO ’23)
The Indo-Pacific Quad, also known as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, is a loosely defined alliance between the United States, Australia, Japan, and India. Recently, its member states have taken steps to deepen economic and security cooperation within the alliance. The unstated purpose of this increased cooperation is to combat rising Chinese influence in the Asia-Pacific region. In particular, the state of Taiwan is facing an increasingly credible threat of Chinese invasion and the Quad has the potential to head off this threat by making aggression against Taiwan militarily, economically, and politically unfeasible.
All four members of the Quad are democracies with shared economic and political interests, and the alliance is therefore deeply concerned with the rise of China. For the U.S., the Quad is a powerful tool for combatting Chinese influence and its byproducts: the violation of human rights and disrespect of foreign economic and political sovereignty in particular. For Japan and India, the alliance is a source of deterrence against Chinese aggression in the South China Sea, and on the India-China border. And for Australia, the Quad can help secure its surrounding waters and align its foreign policy with its democratic values.
The increased coordination among these four major states is a signal to Beijing that China’s actions will not go unchecked. Furthermore, by demonstrating that the U.S. will not be hindered by geographical distance, the alliance helps legitimize Washington’s informal threats of acting against China in case of an attack on Taiwan.
While some experts have criticized the Quad for its focus on “symbolism over substance”, the Quad has taken concrete actions to prove that it is more than just talk over the past year. In response to continued Chinese aggressions in arenas such as Hong Kong, the South China Sea, and the India-China border, the Quad increased the scope of its operations in 2021. It conducted joint military exercises, signed the controversial AUKUS pact that would provide Australia with American nuclear submarine technology, and held two Quad summits during which the members’ heads formed working groups to address global issues such as the pandemic and climate change.
The Quad’s actions are of particular importance on the question of Taiwan. China has assumed an increasingly aggressive posture towards Taiwan, and the Quad has the potential to discourage this behaviour by making it costlier, both politically and economically. By invading Taiwan, China would risk being isolated on key global issues that affect its economy and thus, its people. The increasingly credible threat to Taiwan is also a major test of the United State’s status as a global superpower and of its ability to defend its democratic allies. Taiwan’s future remains uncertain, but the deepening military and economic cooperation of the Quad will increase the country’s chances of remaining free and autonomous.
Along with increased political and military coordination, the Quad is also leveraging economic policy to counter Chinese aggression. One of the key concerns of the Quad is rising Chinese investment in Asian, African, and European countries through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), whose stated aim is to support infrastructure development. However, through debt-tap diplomacy, many of these borrowing countries are now at China’s mercy. This is worrying for the Quad because China has shown that it will not hesitate to use economic coercion for its self-interests.
In 2012, for example, China obstructed tropical fruit exports from the Philippines in response to a dispute regarding Chinese aggression in the South China Sea. To counter behaviour like this, the Quad has formally committed to developing infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific region to act as an alternative to the BRI. Its members also committed to building more resilient supply chains for COVID-19 vaccines, green technology, and rare earth metals, which would help break China’s grip on these important markets and thereby, reduce the world’s dependence on Chinese goods.
By reducing the leverage China holds over other countries, the Quad decreases the probability that the international community will remain silent in response to a Chinese takeover of Taiwan. The demonstrated threat of a coordinated response from the Quad’s members, as well as the risk posed to its political reputation and in turn, its economy, should help keep China’s ambitions at bay. The Quad will be a focal point in the so-called new “Cold War”, concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region, making it an important player in 21st-century geopolitics.
